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このサイトではJavascript機能をOnにしてご利用ください。 ページの本文へ 日本語 English 中文 RIETIについて サイトマップ ヘルプ お問い合わせ 論文検索サービス サイト内検索 メニュー 研究テーマ プログラム (2024-2028年度) プログラム (2020-2023年度) プログラム (2016-2019年度) プログラム (2011-2015年度) 政策研究領域 (2006-2010年度) 主要政策研究課題 (2003-2005年度) 経済産業省共同プロジェクト プロジェクトコンテンツ 調査 フェロー（研究員） 肩書き別一覧 アルファベット順 過去の在籍者 フェローの活動 論文 ディスカッション・ペーパー（日本語） ディスカッション・ペーパー（英語） ポリシー・ディスカッション・ペーパー（日本語） ポリシー・ディスカッション・ペーパー（英語） テクニカル・ペーパー（日本語） テクニカル・ペーパー（英語） ノンテクニカルサマリー 英文査読付学術誌等掲載リスト Research Digest 政策分析論文 調査レポート 論文検索サービス 出版物 RIETIブックス（日本語） RIETIブックス（英語） 通商産業政策史 著者からひとこと RIETI電子書籍 年次報告書・広報誌（RIETI Highlight） その他出版物（日本語） その他出版物（英語） イベント シンポジウム ワークショップ BBLセミナー 終了したセミナーシリーズ データ・統計 JIPデータベース R-JIPデータベース CIPデータベース JLCPデータベース 日本の政策不確実性指数 産業別名目・実質実効為替レート AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR（くらしと健康の調査） RIETI-TID 長期接続産業連関データベース マイクロデータ計量分析プロジェクト 海外直接投資データベース ICPAプロジェクト リンク集 コラム・寄稿 コラム Special Report EBPM Report フェローに聞く フェローの連載 世界の視点から 特別コラム 新聞・雑誌等への寄稿 特別企画 経済産業ジャーナル 研究テーマ フェロー（研究員） 論文 出版物 イベント データ・統計 コラム・寄稿 サイトマップ ヘルプ お問い合せ 閉じる ホームコラム・寄稿Special Report Special Report Credit Insurance to Promote Export Growth by China: Why and how? ツイート 印刷 TIAN Hui ヴィジティングスカラー Some foreigners often ask why China still uses credit insurance to promote export growth although it is the largest exporter in the world. A similar question is posed by some Chinese but from a different angle: should China continue to expand its export credit insurance in such an "aggressive" way in order not to offend the Western world since trade clashes are becoming increasingly intense? There is no doubt that the why and how enigma truly mirrors the fact that government-backed export credit in China is at the crossroads of reassessment and reform. Accelerating financial reforms in 2012In recent years, there has been misunderstanding concerning the role of export growth in China's economy. He Weiwen (2012) (Note 1) tried to use facts and statistics to clarify this. His main findings are as follows:i) China is not an export-dominated economy. Over the period 2000-2011, 10 of these years saw the GDP growth rate exceed 8%. Only three of these years had export contribution in excess of 2%, one year surpassed 1%, five years below 1%; and three years were negative. This indicates that the role played by exports in China's rapid economic growth has been over-estimated.ii) China is no longer a large trade surplus country. Since 2008, China's trade surplus has fallen sharply. Trade surplus as a percentage of GDP jumped from 1.94% in 2004 to 7.76% in 2007, narrowed to 3.99% in 2009, and fell to 2.13% in 2011, far below the 4% that the United States has urged for China to maintain.Table: China's trade surplus as a percentage of GDP: 2000-2011YearGDP(trillion dollars)Foreign trade surplus(trillion dollars)Trade surplusagainst GDP 20001,079.824.12.23% 20011,158.622.61.95% 20021,236.730.42.46% 20031,409.325.61.82% 20041,648.7321.94% 20052,250.9101.94.53% 20062,684.7177.56.61% 20073,378.3262.27.76% 20084,389.3295.56.73% 20094,917.2196.13.99% 20105,878.6183.13.11% 20117,277.2155.12.13% Source: He Weiwen (2012) iii) The widely-used share of exports in GDP is not a scientific indicator and cannot be used to infer that China is a highly export-dependent economy.iv) Expanding exports is not contrary to, but in line with, expanding domestic consumption because it will help increase employment.In conclusion, China should maintain its export growth at a modest pace to achieve balanced and stable development. Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) does not prohibit certain types of export insurance, the Chinese government has no reason not to make better use of it to facilitate international transactions. China has enormous potential to be tapped into for export credit insurance growth, compared with JapanExport credit is relatively new in China, and the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation's (SINOSURE) strong export credit insurance performance is a more recent achievement. Compared with mature countries like Japan, China still has a long way to go.i) China has a significantly shorter history in using export credit insurance as a tool to promote trade growth China's involvement can be traced back to 1988 when the People's Insurance Company of China (PICC), the only insurance company at that time, was authorized to provide insurance for domestic exporters. On the other side, the Japanese government has sought to promote exports through export insurance since 1950. China's export activities have enjoyed a much shorter period of government support than that of Japan and are suffering from more unresolved problems, which imply great potential for policy improvement.ii) China's penetration ratio of export credit insurance is much lower than the peak that Japan reached Since its inception at the end of 1980s, export credit insurance in China has grown very slowly. Change was seen only after 2009 when the State Council decided to use export credit insurance as the top tool to promote export. SINOSURE, the only export insurance provider in China, expanded its amount of export credit insurance underwritten from $43.2 billion in 2008 to $98.3 billion in 2009. In 2011, SINOSURE's total insured amount reached $253.89 billion, of which the insured amount of export credit insurance was $216.24 billion, accounting for 11.4% of the total export amount at the same period and hitting a new high.Although SINOSURE's penetration rate, the rate of insured amount of export credit insurance against total export, is higher than the global average level hitherto, it is still lower than the peak that Japan reached. According to Jai S. Mah and Chris Milner (2005) (Note 2), of the many countries which have operated export insurance systems, Japan's share of exports insured by export insurance is the highest in the world. During the period 1990-1999, the amount of underwritten business totaled 159.2 trillion yen, which covered 36% of total Japanese exports, although the coverage ratio decreased somewhat to 20% during 2000-2001. This was the highest in the world, compared with the other active users such as France (17%), Korea (17%), the UK (13%), and Australia (9%).The following figure compares the penetration ratio of SINOSURE and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI) over the decade of 2002-2011. Before 2009, NEXI had a much higher penetration ratio than SINOSURE; after 2009, the gap narrowed due to the latter's sharp rise and the former's sharp decline. In 2011, the penetration ratios of these two nations were very close. Figure: Penetration rate of export credit insurance against total export in China and JapanSource: Calculated using data from the annual reports of SINOSURE and NEXI and the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China (Note 3) China needs to take more action to enhance international cooperation and promote competitivenessThe 2008 global financial crisis has changed many things, including the international and domestic background of China's economic development. There are three challenges particularly worth mentioning. First, China's new role as the second biggest economy is shaking the existing international hierarchy and arousing increasingly more conflicts economically and politically. Second, the international community is expecting increasing cooperation and responsibility from China accompanying with its ever-growing influence. Third, the numerous problems confronting China render domestic reforms not only necessary but also urgent. More and more Chinese people have realized that accomplished achievements are not sustainable without reform.All of the three challenges above apply to the export credit insurance system in China, which implies that it is no longer suitable to proceed along the traditional road, and new ideas should be adopted to review and reform the old regime. The two most crucial factors are:i) Participating in international negotiations positively China is not a member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and thus is not binding to OECD arrangements, which constitutes one of the roots of the trade clashes between itself and the other developed nations. From the Westerners' perspective, China's attitude toward participating in export credit-related international forums is not regarded as active, and sometimes even deemed passive (Note 4). If this is true, adjustments must be made immediately. International negotiation is the only way to help reshape a more impartial and sustainable trade environment.ii) Facilitating domestic reforms decidedly Many international issues are domestic by nature, e.g., SINOSURE is the only provider of export credit insurance, and no private insurers are allowed to operate the business currently in China. SINOSURE's unnecessary monopoly has resulted in many adverse consequences, such as disruptive market mechanics, over-estimated statistics, and international dissatisfaction. Many academics and practitioners are calling for opening up of the export credit insurance market to private insurers, but no actions have been taken yet. Why is there hesitation? It is time for the central government to make a clear separation between government intervention and market mechanics.November 26, 2012 脚注 ^ He Weiwen, "Maintaining export growth to realize a balanced development," International Trade, Volume 2, 2012 (in Chinese) ^ Jai S. Mah and Chris Milner, "The Japanese Export Insurance Arrangement: Promotion or Subsidisation?" The World Economy, Vol.28, No.2, Feb.2005 ^ Some adjustments have been made on NEXI's business lines to make data comparable with that of SINOSURE.The underwritten amount only refers to export credit insurance, excluding those lines related to investment activities such as overseas investment insurance and overseas untied loan insurance. ^ E.g., according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office's (GAO) report (2012), some OECD members have made efforts to engage China on export credit issues, including encouraging participation in various forums, but have generally reported limited success. Several ECA, government, and OECD officials have reported that China is often either unwilling to attend or sends lower-level representatives to export credit-related meetings. ツイート 2012年11月26日掲載 印刷 この著者の記事 米中間の貿易金融論争には冷静な判断が必要 2012年12月 4日［コラム］ Credit Insurance to Promote Export Growth by China: Why and how? 2012年11月26日［Special Report］ China's Ongoing Financial Reforms 2012年11月14日［Special Report］ コラム・寄稿 コラム Special Report EBPM Report フェローに聞く フェローの連載 世界の視点から 特別コラム 新聞・雑誌等への寄稿 特別企画 経済産業ジャーナル 情報発信 ニュースレター 更新情報RSS配信 Facebook X YouTube 研究テーマ プログラム (2024-2028年度) プログラム (2020-2023年度) プログラム (2016-2019年度) プログラム (2011-2015年度) 政策研究領域 (2006-2010年度) 経済産業省共同プロジェクト プロジェクトコンテンツ 調査 フェロー（研究員） 論文 ディスカッション・ペーパー（日本語） ディスカッション・ペーパー（英語） ポリシー・ディスカッション・ペーパー（日本語） ポリシー・ディスカッション・ペーパー（英語） テクニカル・ペーパー（日本語） テクニカル・ペーパー（英語） ノンテクニカルサマリー 英文査読付学術誌等掲載リスト Research Digest 政策分析論文 調査レポート 論文検索サービス 出版物 RIETIブックス（日本語） RIETIブックス（英語） 通商産業政策史 著者からひとこと RIETI電子書籍 年次報告書・広報誌（RIETI Highlight） その他出版物（日本語） その他出版物（英語） イベント シンポジウム ワークショップ BBLセミナー 終了したセミナーシリーズ データ・統計 JIPデータベース R-JIPデータベース CIPデータベース JLCPデータベース 日本の政策不確実性指数 産業別名目・実質実効為替レート AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR（くらしと健康の調査） RIETI-TID 長期接続産業連関データベース マイクロデータ計量分析プロジェクト 海外直接投資データベース ICPAプロジェクト リンク集 コラム・寄稿 コラム Special Report EBPM Report フェローに聞く フェローの連載 世界の視点から 特別コラム 新聞・雑誌等への寄稿 特別企画 経済産業ジャーナル RIETIについて 個人情報保護 ウェブアクセシビリティ方針 RIETIウェブサイトについて サイトマップ ヘルプ お問い合わせ 経済産業省 独立行政法人経済産業研究所（法人番号 6010005005426） 当サイト内の署名記事は、執筆者個人の責任で発表するものであり、経済産業研究所としての見解を示すものでは有りません。掲載している肩書や数値、固有名詞などは、原則として初掲載当時のものです。当サイトのコンテンツを転載される場合は、事前にご連絡ください。 "ページの先頭へ戻る